WinHEC 2005: Coverage Wrap
by Derek Wilson & Jarred Walton on April 29, 2005 2:00 PM EST- Posted in
- Trade Shows
Closing Thoughts
If we were to be brutally honest, there wasn't a whole lot of new or amazing stuff shown at WinHEC. Even a first time tradeshow attendee (Jarred) noticed that there were a lot of bored looks. To quote a representative from a major hardware vendor, "I think a lot of companies just come out of respect for Microsoft." Still, after the rather lackluster Keynote presentation, there was plenty of useful information when we dug a little deeper. With over 90% of the market, Microsoft pretty much defines the future of most computers right now. If they say it's time to have DX9 level 3D graphics in Windows - whether that be on a Desktop, Laptop, Server, or Workstation PC - then it's pretty much a foregone conclusion. It will be interesting to see how the server platforms make use of 3D (or if they even make use of it).While we applaud Microsoft for bringing forth the advancements in Longhorn, we have to admit that they are long overdue. The advancements in metadata and file representation have been around in the Linux world for years, and Apple's OS X is still hands and feet above anything we've seen of MS' new look and feel. We are certainly not going to be the one to speak out against Microsoft for trying to bring their OS up to par with the rest of the world. Honestly, being the platform for which most applications are written today should place weightier expectations on Windows than other operating systems. Microsoft has a responsibility to live up to their position in the market place, and unless they make some huge unforeseen strides with Longhorn, they will simply be keeping pace rather than setting it.
One of the questions we liked to ask of the various hardware vendors was what they thought the real world use scenarios and performance benefits of 64-bit would be. Obviously, servers and workstations will benefit, as will anyone with a large amount of memory that wants to work with a large data set. Graphics artists that want to open up numerous large images at the same time will find it helpful, for example. But what about the more typical users that only have 1 GB of RAM in their system? We heard a lot of claims of "substantial performance increases," but there were very few people willing to quote a concrete number. AMD claimed that 20% was common, but several others felt 5% or so was a more realistic expectation, brought about by the additional registers. Obviously, opinions on what constitutes a substantial increase will vary, but if it's only 5%, we think most people are better off continuing with XP-32 for the present.
Speaking of AMD, we chatted briefly with Barry Crume (AMD's director of product planning for the server/workstation segment) about the future of processors. There were a couple of interesting things that came up in our conversation (and since Barry didn't say otherwise, we'll assume it's okay that we mention this). The first thing we talked about was CPU clock speeds. Where Intel in the past talked about reaching 10 GHz and beyond, it's telling that one of their sessions was entitled "Intel Enterprise Platform - Value Beyond GHz." One fact that came up is that at 5 GHz, light can only travel 6 cm per clock cycle, and electricity would be more like 3 or 4 cm. Barry said that he felt 4 to 5 GHz may be the maximum clock speed that we'll see without some fundamental changes in technology or really long pipelines. He also stated that CPU designs with 10 to 15 pipeline stages appear to be the optimal solution, although as many as 20 is perhaps reasonable. In other words, the days of 28 to 39 pipelines stages (Willamette, Northwood, and Prescott) are basically over. Intel is admitting as much with their increased focus on the Pentium M architecture.
The other interesting comment from Barry was that he stated AMD will be using DDR2 in a future processor. We had asked if they might simply skip DDR2 altogether and head straight to DDR3, and he said they would not be doing so. His explanation was that DDR2-400 didn't make any sense at all, and while DDR2-533 has some advantages, it's really only at DDR2-667 that performance benefits become useful. How useful? He stated that a 10% performance increase was likely. Whether this was just a guess or if AMD already has DDR2 prototype processors - remember that with the integrated memory controller, AMD will have to create a new version of their chips to support a new memory type like DDR2 - we don't know. We were actually surprised at his response, as we thought DDR3 was close enough that AMD would simply skip a generation. Then again, they might like the idea of allowing Intel users the ability to convert to AMD with the only required purchases being the motherboard and processor. Having a common memory platform certainly isn't bad for consumers.
At the end of the show, while we would definitely say that WinHEC doesn't have the flash or glitz of Computex, E3, or some of the other larger shows, there was still plenty of good information to be found. Hardware devices still need robust drivers to achieve maximum performance, and that's what WinHEC really focuses on. Will we go again next year? Maybe, or if not DevCon 2006 should only be a few months before the ship date of Longhorn. It's certainly useful to keep tabs on how MS views the industry. A better option, judging by recent MS release dates, is that we'll be sure to attend WinHEC 2007 for the actual launch of Longhorn. (The current official word is that Longhorn is due in mid to late 2006. However, given the slippage of XP-64 and features like WinFS that have been pushed back to a later update, we remain skeptical.)
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JarredWalton - Wednesday, May 18, 2005 - link
JimmyTalbot, the Avalon cylinder demo was done on a laptop for us but one of the developers. It was basically meant as a "proof of concept". She said it took about one or two days to create - i.e. it was much easier than current Windows APIs. As far as I know, it's not available to the public or anyone outside of MS. Sorry.JimmyTalbot - Monday, May 16, 2005 - link
I should have specified: I got the WinFX (Avalon) Beta SDK hoping to find the sample in there, but it's not included.JimmyTalbot - Monday, May 16, 2005 - link
Does anybody know if/where I can get the "3D Picture Viewer" demo shown on page 1 of the article?Doormat - Monday, May 2, 2005 - link
I think the idea of browsing in the BIOS is fascinating. Even with WinXP its still 1-3 minutes or so to get to a usable browser or mail program. If all you needed to do is check your mail real quick, why not just go into the BIOS and forget about booting all the way into windows, and then shutting down.Fricardo - Monday, May 2, 2005 - link
"The other interesting comment from Barry was that he stated AMD will be using DDR2 in a future processor. We had asked if they might simply skip DDR2 altogether and head straight to DDR3, and he said they would not be doing so."Now that is interesting. I've been wanting to know that for months. Strange how the most useful part of the article was a talk with an AMD employee. Thanks guys.
Tujan - Sunday, May 1, 2005 - link
The funny thing about Windows is that the development areas seem oblivious to fact that testing of succesful programs are done on high-end systems wich then we see with the OEMs giving underperforming system to the masses.The graphics ideas are great,sure,but on 'when''the default graphics will be able to take and PASS the test the big boys are working with.
Windows interface for Longhorn,sure looks like the same barnyard.So we will have to rely on other vendors, and programs such as WindowsBlinds to add deriviative to such things as different colored buttons in a dialog box.
Again why so,a system font size cascades 'all windows.Nothwithstanding,getting pass security to customize your own computer now. Why does the interface remain nothing more than a very expensive colored lightbulb,and a glorified printer.
Hello,'integrate the icons into the 'program ? Sure we see the 'how-it-works. But why does it have to work at all.Is this going to keep us from creating our own icons for our own 'visual aids.Wich most all of retails off-the-shelf instructions for 'Long Horn,will invariably be in print.Now just imagine the trees for example.
So why dont you integrate the add/remove programs to the 'File Associations.? Isn't this explicit enough to keep from having those undocked windows fish flying from one pond to another.
Get rid of DOS.Think the learning expression traveling this train is simply to head for the caboos,and jump off.You would certainly be at the conductors point of reference then right ?
Im ready for a Virtual windows machine running technology all the way to the 60s.But we in the real computer world only imagine.Imagine that syntax doesn't come with noun,verb,subject and predicate. Much less have a reference that tells you so. Rather than giving somebody the rug by saying lets do the media,then I told you so.
Good luck.And wheres the beef ?
DerekWilson - Sunday, May 1, 2005 - link
In hind sight, Anand is probably right about Longhorn being more advanced than Tiger ... But the direction and (lacking) demos we saw didn't give us the warm fuzzy feeling we would expect.Of course, the ammount of cash Microsoft has laying around to make something happen if they need to would make anything possible ... My real question is: do they think they need to?
Give both Apple and MS a year and a half, and we could have an interesting feature battle on our hands depending on how much Apple can push themselves and how much MS cares :-)
Icehawk - Saturday, April 30, 2005 - link
I'm very curious as to how the UEFI Bios works, very intriguing to me.***
I think it is interesting that in Anand's Tiger article he says that Longhorn should be more advanced but this articles suggests it will be at on par, at best. I wonder which it will be?
***
3D on servers? Now that is a waste of resources and money. If a particular app uses it, OK then I'll budget the resources. But why should I need 3D to run IIS/FTP/etc?!
Well software wouldn't be anywhere without hardware, would it?
The market is pretty stagnant right now so I guess pushing 3D onto all desktops and making a gpu/cpu intensive OS should ensure some huge rounds of upgrades. Server-side almost none of them have 3d cards, or if they do very weak built-ins for the most part. On the desktop a P3 1ghz with 512mb of RAM is still *passable* on XP, that is a 5 year old machine. Something even slightly more robust like a 1.4ghz K7 with 1gb of RAM still runs everything but games without too many issues.
Guess they need to do something to make me want to upgrade again - I just went from that 1.4 K7/GF4 to a 3.2 P4/6600GT and don't see any offerings on the 1-2yr horizon causing me to upgrade otherwise. DC would be nice with my usage but raw processing power...? Only in games. That was the only reason I upgraded at all now, I would have waited if I could have otherwise as my old machine ran everything up until D3/HL2 fairly well.
stephenbrooks - Saturday, April 30, 2005 - link
...or post comments while you're in your BIOS.xtknight - Saturday, April 30, 2005 - link
awesome...I can't wait to get ahold of a WGF2.0 card and Longhorn. sounds like that will provide for some awesome effects I could put in my programs. UEFI looks kinda interesting as well. web browser in a BIOS is going too far IMO, though. they need to keep in mind this is just for diagnosing your pc. on the other hand you could download drivers or search for troubleshooting information from anandtech forums, while you're in your BIOS :)